The 2025box officehas so far been dominated by the final movies of 2024, butDen of Thieves 2: PanteraandBetter Manarrive with hopes of potentially bringing the new year some early hits. Although the Robbie Williams biopic, where he’s a CGI chimpanzee, received a limited theatrical release at Christmas, it only played in six theaters. January 10th marks the wide release ofBetter Manas it squares off with Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr.’s sequel to 2018’s surprise action/crime hitDen of Thieves.
The option for audiences towatchDen of Thieves 2in theaters, andBetter Manfor that matter, is just what the box office needs at this stage.Mufasa: The Lion King,Sonic the Hedgehog 3,Nosferatu,Moana 2, andWickedwere the top five earners at the domestic box office during the first weekend of January. With Vertical’s horror movieThe Damnedand Warner Bros.’s re-release ofSe7enmarking the only new releases last week, neither came close to beatingMufasaas the top earner. That’s whatDen of Thieves 2andBetter Manhope to do this weekend.
Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera Opening Weekend Box Office Projections
Gerard Butler’s Sequel Could Make $15M+
Lionsgate is releasingDen of Thieves 2: Panteraafter distribution changed hands throughout the sequel’s development, and the studio behindJohn Wickis hoping this becomes another hit action franchise.The originalDen of Thievesopened to $15.2 millionin a similar early January release date back in 2018, where it finished its theatrical run making $44.9 million domestically and $80.5 million worldwide. Still, the first film’s opening weekend was only good for the third spot, falling just behind Chris Hemsworth’s12 Strong($15.8M) andJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle($19.5M).
Long-range projections forDen of Thieves 2’s opening weekend called for a similar performance as the first film, withBox Office Proputting the range at $10M-$15M. However, there are reasons to believe that it could do better than that; the sequel has no direct competition in terms of R-rated action films skewing toward adult males. As a sequel with a recognizable star at the focus,Den of Thieves 2could match or exceed Jason Statham’sThe Beekeeper, which opened at #2 with $16.5M last year in the same weekend.Varietyreports the sequel is tracking for a $11M-$13M opening.
If reviews are better than the original,Den of Thieves 2could find itself having a solid opening weekend between $15M-$20M.His movies consistently open in the $10M+ range, asPlane,Angel Has Fallen,Den of Thieves,Geostorm,London Has Fallen, andOlympus Has Fallenare a handful of recent examples to eclipse that mark. TheHas Fallensequels both made over $21M in their opening weekends, so Butler’s star power as an action lead could be enough to bring a similar result forDen of Thieves 2if everything goes well.
Better Man Opening Weekend Box Office Projections
The Robbie Williams Biopic Faces Box Office Uncertainty
Paramount bet big onBetter Man, giving the biopic forRobbie Williams as a CGI monkeyfrom director Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman) a reported $110 million budget, but acquired by Paramount for only $25 million. However, the film has not yet delivered at the box office. Part of this is due to the limited six-theater release that it had for the first two weeks of release, resulting in it making less than six figures domestically during that time. January 10 is whenBetter Manfinally expands to more theaters, but its box office performance is not clear.
It is confirmedBetter Manwill play in around 1,200 theaters domestically, with tracking suggesting a low $2 million opening. Interest in the movie has started to pick up during its limited release, as it had a $4,349 per theater average last weekend - up from its $3,043 average to start. Even withBetter Man’s positive reviewshelping bring the film more attention,the safe prediction for its opening weekend box office is $5 million or less. It would need a higher per theater average or play in well over 1,000 theaters to do better.
New Indie Releases For January 10 & Box Office Projections
The Last Showgirl & Hard Truths Hit Theaters
Den of Thieves 2andBetter Manare the bigger-budgeted movies coming to theaters this weekend, but they are not the only new releases. Notably, January 10 is also whenThe Last ShowgirlandHard Truthsbecome available. Both movies are in the mix this awards season, with Pamela Anderson picking up Golden Globes and SAG nominations for her performance inThe Last Showgirl. With Oscar voting now underway, the films' releases provide an opportunity for each to have a moment to shine potentially.
The Last ShowgirlandHard Truthsare not expected to be major box office performers right away, though. Official tracking for either film is not available online. WhileThe Last Showgirlhas more star power and an impressive showing in its one-theater Oscar-qualifying release in December, Roadside Attractions is not known for delivering big financial hits;none of Roadside Attractions' movies had an opening weekend of over $2 million last year. Bleecker Street’s distribution ofHard Truthswill likely keep its opening weekend well below $1 million, too.
Mufasa, Sonic 3, Nosferatu & More Are Poised For Strong Weekends Again
Late 2024 Releases Will Keep Doing Well At The Box Office
The January 10-12 weekend should continue to see some of 2024’s final releases do well in 2025.MufasaandSonic the Hedgehog 3have been battling for the top spot at the box office for the past three weeks. WhileSonic 3’s opening weekendgot the best ofMufasa, Disney’sThe Lion Kingprequel has had very strong legs and even managed to overtake the Paramount’s video game movie sequel.Both films made over $21 million last weekend, with barely a $2 million difference between them. Each should be in the mid-to-high teens this weekend.
AfterMufasahad a 3.6% increase in its second weekend, it had a 36.3% drop in its third weekend. That gives the film better holds thanSonic the Hedgehog 3had in its second and third weekends, at 38.4% and 42.3% drops, respectively. These trends point to a $15M-$18M fourth weekend forMufasaif it can have a similar hold.Sonic 3could make around $13M-16M if it continues to lag behind.
Mufasa: The Lion Kinghas outperformedSonic the Hedgehog 3at the worldwide box office
As for the rest of themovies in theaters in January 2025,Nosferatu,Moana 2,Wicked,A Complete Unknown, andBabygirlare trending in good directions.Robert Eggers' horror movie had a sub-40% drop in its second weekend, so it could make another $7M-$10M. Disney has yet to putMoana 2on streaming, so it could keep doing well as it closes in on $1 billion worldwide.Wickedis starting to drop more now that it’s available for at-home viewing on digital. That could benefitA Complete UnknownandBabygirl’s performances after both had a stellar second weekend.
Predicted Top 10 Box Office For January 10-12, 2025
Mufasa Is Predicted To Win The Weekend Again
This weekend puts three films firmly in contention to take the #1 spot at the box office, as this battle should come down toMufasa,Sonic 3, andDen of Thieves 2. There’s a world where any of these titles could see themselves at the top of the weekend once the actuals for January 10-12 become known. At this point,I’m predicting thatMufasawill win the weekend and be the #1 movie at the domestic box officefor a second consecutive weekend.
1
$17.8 million
2
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
$16.1 million
3
$15.8 million
4
$10.1 million
5
$7.5 million
6
$5.3 million
7
$5.1 million
8
$4 million
9
$3.2 million
10
Gladiator II
$2 million
It would not be a huge surprise ifDen of Thieves 2ultimately takes the weekend, but it will need a huge push from adult males to get it done.NosferatuandMoana 2round out the predicted top 5, which would be an impressive seven consecutive weekends in the top five for Disney’s animated sequel.A Complete Unknownis expected to keep doing well as it gets more attention during awards season, and same forWickedand evenBabygirlto some degree.Better ManandGladiator IIfinish my predicted top 10 for this weekend at thebox office.
