The2025 Oscarswill occur on July 13, 2025, and they will behosted by Conan O’Brien. Until then, movie fans have been keeping an eye on all the biggest awards ceremonies to get hints at the Oscars' outcome. While some of the categories have remained fairly straightforward, otherOscars races have been linked to controversy. Likewise, thepredicted Oscar winnersof each category have fluctuated wildly based on their performances at precursor awards shows, making it difficult to predict the outcome for many of the biggest Oscars races.
However, the BAFTA Awards and the Writers Guild Awards which occurred over the weekend can certainlygive insight into what the Oscars landscape might look like in the coming weeks. For instance, several of the races have been cemented as likely to be between two top nominees, but with several precursor awards under each of their belts, the Oscar could still go either way. Other races seem to have one clear frontrunner, such asBest Supporting Actress, who will likely take home the Oscar after a full slate of successful precursor awards.
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8Best Original Screenplay
The WGAs and the BAFTAs had two different winners for Best Original Screenplay over the weekend, and both films are excellent.At the WGAs, Sean Baker won Best Original Screenplay forAnora, while at the BAFTAs, Jesse Eisenberg took home the award forA Real Pain.These two wins are not altogether surprising as they are considered the two most likely winners at the Oscars, with the chances falling slightly inAnora’s favor.
OnlyAnoraandA Real Painwere nominated at the WGAs, maintaining their advantage in voters' minds.
BothAnoraandA Real Painhave had success in many of the smaller critics' circles across the country and internationally, soboth have a fairly good chance of taking home the Oscar in March. However, it would be remiss to excludeThe Substancefrom the conversation about Best Original Screenplay as the film won Best Original Screenplay at the Critics' Choice Awards. The other two nominated films areThe BrutalistandSeptember 5. Interestingly, out of the Oscars nominees, onlyAnoraandA Real Painwere nominated at the WGAs, maintaining their advantage in voters' minds.
7Best Adapted Screenplay
Nickel Boys Made A Strong Showing At The WGA, But Conclave Still Looks Likely
The Oscars and the BAFTAs each had the same lineup of nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay, with the current predicted Oscars winner beingConclave. Both ceremonies nominatedConclave, A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, andEmilia Pérez. Fittingly,Conclaveended up taking home the award at the BAFTAs yesterday, matching the predicted Oscars win.Conclavehas already won the Critics' Choice Award and Golden Globe for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Screenplay, respectively.
Given thatConclavehas won almost all the major Oscars precursors and many awards from critics' circles, it seems safe to say that the weekends' awards ceremonies have cemented its place as the Oscar frontrunner. However,the WGAs did throw in a twist whenNickel Boystook home the award. The WGA had several different options to the Oscars and BAFTAs, with the nominees beingNickel Boys, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, Dune: Part 2, andHit Man. While the WGA can be a good indicator andNickel Boysis certainly well-written,Conclaveremains on top.
6Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldaña Looks Like The Likely Winner
At the 2025 BAFTAs, Zoe Saldaña took home the award for Best Supporting Actress after being nominated alongside Selena Gomez, Ariana Grande, Felicity Jones, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Isabella Rossellini. While all the nominees gave great performances in their respective movies, this BAFTA win continues Zoe Saldaña’s winning streak.Saldaña has already won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award for Best Supporting Actress, so Zoe is currently the stand-out in the Best Supporting Actress Category going into the SAG Awards and the Oscars.
Zoe Saldaña Looks Like An Oscar-Winning Frontrunner After The 2025 Golden Globes
Zoe Saldaña won the tight Best Supporting Actress race with Ariana Grande at the Golden Globes, making the same result at the Oscars seem likely.
Additionally, though the BAFTAs can differ from the Oscars quite a bit in some categories,in recent years, the BAFTAs have been a correct indicator of who would win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar seven out of 10 times. While this is not a perfect track record, it does mean that the BAFTAs are a very good indicator. Especially considering that the BAFTAs are more likely to award British actors, which was true for the three Best Supporting Actress differences, Zoe Saldaña’s win makes her Oscars chances seem even stronger.
5Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin Has Dominated The Oscars Precursors
If there is one category that has seemed set since the announcement of the nominees, it is Best Supporting Actor.Kieran Culkin has run away with the majority of the attention and the majority of the precursor awards, now including the BAFTA. The nominees in the category are Kieran Culkin inA Real Pain, Guy Pearce inThe Brutalist, Edward Norton inA Complete Unknown, Jeremy Strong inThe Apprentice, and Yura Borisov inAnora. These nominees were the same for the BAFTAs with the addition of Clarence Maclin forSing Sing.
Kieran Culkin’s Oscar Nomination Isn’t Category Fraud Even If A Real Pain Makes It Seem That Way
Kieran Culkin’s Best Supporting Actor nomination at the 2025 Oscars has been criticized as category fraud, but he is, indeed, a supporting actor.
Unsurprisingly, Culkin (or more accurately Eisenberg on behalf of Culkin) took home the BAFTA for Best Supporting Actor given that he has already won the Golden Globe, National Board of Review, and Critics' Choice Awards for his performance. Including both major awarding bodies and smaller critics' circles,Culkin has received over 50 nominationsfor his portrayal of the free-spirited yet complex character Benji. Of course, an upset could still occur at the Oscars and see Pearce of Norton take the award, but Culkin looks very well positioned at the moment.
4Best Actor
Brody And Chalamet Look Set To Battle It Out
The2025 Best Actor categoryhas some incredible nominees, but unfortunately, only one will be able to take home the Oscar. Right now, that seems to be between Timothée Chalamet forA Complete Unknownand Adrien Brody forThe Brutalist. The other nominees in the category are Ralph Fiennes, Sebastian Stan, and Colman Domingo, and the BAFTAs added Hugh Grant to that same list. While none of the other nominees got any closer to winning,the race between Chalamet and Brody may have just gotten even tighter after Brody took home the BAFTA.
If Timothée Chalamet wins, he will become the youngest Best Actor winner of all time, taking the record from Adrien Brody himself, who earned it after winning forThe Pianistin 2003.
On paper, Adrien Brody seems like the most likely winner due to his success at the Critics' Choice Awards and Golden Globes along with the BAFTAs. However, Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan is truly incredible, and his audience appeal could help with voters. What’s more,The Brutalistmay be slightly hindered by the recent AI controversy which revealed that Brody’s voice was altered to allow him to achieve the right accent. Though it seems that this has mostly blown over, it does mean thatBrody’s BAFTA win will help bring more positive attention to him going into the SAG Awards and Oscars.
3Best Actress
There Are 2 Main Contenders
The2025 Oscars Best Actressrace has been one of the most interesting categories this awards season because of how frequently the predictions have gone back and forth between two major nominees. Currently, Demi Moore forThe Substanceand Mikey Madison forAnoraare getting the most attention. Demi Moore won at the important precursors, the Golden Globes and the Critics' Choice Awards, butMadison took home the BAFTA. Likewise, Mikey Madison won the most precursor wins from critics' circles, making it a very difficult race to call.
Demi Moore Winning Best Actress Would Achieve This Oscars First For The Substance
Demi Moore is favorite to win 2025’s Best Actress Oscar, for her role in The Substance. If she wins, it’ll be a historic moment for a niche subgenre.
Moore and Madison are joined in the Oscars category by Karla Sofía Gascón, Fernanda Torres, and Cynthia Erivo, who have each received acclaim for their performances. While many early Best Actress predictions saw Gascón leading the way, her troubling behavior has effectively removed her from the running. While Torres and Erivo are both great performers, they currently do not have the precursor wins that would put them over the edge.The upcoming SAG Awards may make the race between Moore and Madison clearer, but for now, fans will have to wait.
2Best Director
Like several of the other biggest categories, Best Director has been somewhat hard to pin down, and that trend has continued afterBrady Corbet won the BAFTA. TheBest Director race at the 2025 Oscarsis made up of great contenders who each have nominations in other categories. However, Sean Baker forAnoraand Brady Corbet forThe Brutalistseem to be garnering the most attention at the Oscars precursors. In addition to the BAFTA, Corbet also won the Golden Globe for Best Director. In contrast, Sean Baker took home the award from the DGA.
In the past 10 years, the BAFTA Best Director winner and the Oscars Best Director winner have matched up seven times, giving Corbet a solid chance.
While both Baker and Corbet both have very strong chances going into the Oscars,Corbet’s BAFTA win does give him the edge. In the past 10 years, the BAFTA Best Director winner and the Oscars Best Director winner have matched up seven times, giving Corbet a solid chance. Overall, while Sean Baker began as the predicted winner as Best Director, Brady Corbet may currently have a slight advantage.
1Best Picture
The Most Coveted Category Is Also The Most Uncertain
All the Oscars categories are interesting, but Best Picture often gets the most attention, and this year that is at least partially due to the various controversies that have surrounded several of the leading nominees. At this point, the2025 Best Picture raceremains somewhat uncertain. WhileEmilia Pérezseemed like the favorite for a while, it has fallen out of favor, andAnora, The Brutalist, andConclavehave taken the top three predicted spots. At the 2025 BAFTAs,Conclavewon the Best Film Award, but the category is not always indicative of the Oscar winner.
The 10 Longest Best Picture Oscar Nominated Movies (Including The Brutalist)
The Brutalist has reignited discussion around the length of films, and these are the 10 longest movies that have ever been nominated for Best Picture.
Conclaveis undoubtedly a great movie, butThe BrutalistandAnorastill have the edge, especially given the BAFTAs' preference for British films gaveConclavean advantage it may not see at the Oscars. SinceAnorais one of the strongest movies of the year overall, andThe Brutalistwon Best Picture - Drama at the Golden Globes, those two still seem like the likely movies to watch out for at the Oscars, with Conclave trailing slightly behind. With the Best Picture race remaining up in the air for the next few weeks, the2025 Oscarswill no doubt be exciting.
