Colman Domingo has been part of the2025 Oscarsrace for Best Actor for some time thanks toSing Sing, and his first major win with the Gotham Awards is a telling sign of what is to come. After breaking through into the awards side of Hollywood withRustin, Domingo’s praised work inSing Singreviewsonce again vaulted him into contention for another Academy Award nomination. The Gotham Awards have become the first awards ceremony to officially recognize his performance with a win, asColman Domingo won Outstanding Lead Performanceon the December 2nd awards show.
The Gotham Awards have been around since 1991 and have carved out a spot as one of the earliest shows in awards season. In 2013, Best Actor and Best Actress were added to the category lineup before both were combined into Outstanding Lead Performance starting in 2021. That is the category Colman Domingo won at the 2024 Gotham Awards, beating out Best Actor and Best Actress Oscar hopefuls in the process.He’s the first male actor to win the combined Lead categorysince its creation.
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This officially makes Colman Domingo’sSing Singperformance an award-winning one, as he has previously only been nominated for his work in the movie or recognized in other capacities. While the correlation between the independent awards show and the Academy Awards is not massive, his Gotham Awards win does have an impact on the 2025 Oscars Best Actor race and the hopes ofDomingo being a back-to-back Oscar nominee.
The Gotham Awards Have A Spotty History Of Connecting To The Oscars' Best Actor Race
Colman Domingo is now the ninth actor to be recognized by the Gotham Awards for a leading male performance since the show began doing so in 2013.Matthew McConaughey was the first recipient of the Gotham Award for Best Actorthanks to his role inDallas Buyers Club. At the time, it was unclear if that would impact the actor’s Oscar chances. McConaughey became a favorite of the awards season and ultimately won the Best Actor Oscar. That set up a potential precedent for the Gotham Awards to be a consistent predictor for the Oscars in Best Actor.
The Gotham Awards' use as a predictor for the Oscars wavered in the following years, though. Michael Keaton won the Gotham Award forBirdmanin 2014 and was thought of as the favorite to win the Oscar. While Keaton was nominated for his performance, the Academy Awards gave Best Actor to Eddie Redmayne forThe Theory of Everything. Momentum picked back up in 2016 thanks toCasey Affleck winning Best Actor at the Gotham Awards and Academy AwardsforManchester by the Sea. However, this was the last time a lead male performance won at both awards ceremonies.
2013
2014
2015
No, was not nominated
2016
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
2017
2018
2019
No, lost to Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
2020
No, lost to Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
2021-2023
None - Best Actor and Best Actress categories combined into Outstanding Lead Performance
Now that the Best Actor category is combined with Best Actress to make Outstanding Lead Performance,the success rate of male actors winning at the Gothams and Oscars was only 25%. That drops to 18% if the years with Outstanding Lead Performance are factored in. That is not an ideal position for Colman Domingo to be in then after hisSing Singwin. The Gothams and Oscars have not shared a Best Actor winner in eight years after all, so it will be up to the former Oscar nominee to change that with a win in 2025.
Colman Domingo’s Gotham Awards Win Still Helps Bolster His Oscars 2025 Best Actor Nomination Chances
There’s Stronger Overlap Between The Gotham & Oscar Nominations
Arguably the biggest takeaway from Colman Domingo’s Outstanding Lead Performance win at the 2024 Gotham Awards comes with his odds of receiving an Oscar nomination. Although he was already considered a major contender and featured onScreen Rant’s predicted 2025 Oscars Best Actor nominations, an early win like this is great. It helps build up his résumé and adds to his momentum, especially as Domingo is able to deliver speeches that could help sway the opinions of actual Academy voters. His status as a former Oscar nominee helps there, too.
11 male actors have been nominated by the Gotham Awards and Academy Awards for the same movie as a lead, while five who were nominated for Lead at the Gothams went in Supporting at the Oscars
More importantly, there is a stronger connection between the Gotham Awards and Oscars when it comes to nominations.Five of the eight Best Actor winners for the Gotham Awards received an Oscar nomination. Furthermore, Brendan Fraser and Paul Mescal were nominated for Outstanding Lead Performance in 2022 before earning Oscar nominations - with Fraser winning Best Actor - and the Gothams and Oscars nominated Jeffrey Wright forAmerican Fictiontwo years later. That overlap should be in Domingo’s favor to get an Oscar nomination forSing Sing.
Should Colman Domingo Be The Oscars 2025 Best Actor Frontrunner After The Gotham Awards?
His Victory At The Gothams Has A Small Impact On Best Actor Oscars Race
With the 97th Academy Awards still being three months away, it is far too early to call Colman Domingo the frontrunner for Best Actor. His win at the Gotham Awards is notable and a sign of how much favor his performance has.The voting bodies between the Gothams and Oscars do not overlap, but the Academy Awards' actors branch - which is the largest group of voters - is sure to also admire the emotional work Domingo delivers inSing Sing. Since he was already considered a major contender for the Best Actor Oscar, that does not change.
It’s also difficult to fully know where Domingo’s performance stacks up when the Gotham Awards' nominations are sure to look quite different from the Oscars. Adrien Brody, Justice Smith, and Keith Kupferer were the only other male actors nominated for Outstanding Lead Performance, but only Brody’s work inThe Brutalistis in serious contention to get an Oscar nomination. Other notable contenders like Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), or Sebastian Stan (A Different ManorThe Apprentice) were absent from this awards show, which complicates matters.
Ultimately, Colman Domingo is in a stronger position to get an Oscar nomination forSing Singafter his Gotham Awards win. Whether he can win Best Actor in 2025 is another story. But if he continues to rack up wins with various critics groups and bigger precursors like SAG, Critics Choice, or the Golden Globes, then he’ll be in an even better spot to possibly win at the2025 Oscars.
