After the last film underperformed at the box office, Paramount and Skydance’sMission: Impossible — The Final Reckoningis projecting a franchise high for its box office debut. The film is a sequel to 2023’sDead Reckoning, and is being marketed as the franchise’s final film, however, neither Tom Cruise nor director Christopher McQuarrie have given a definitive answer as to whether it will be the franchise’s ending. Following the events of the previous film,Final Reckoningaims to concludeEthan Hunt’s (Tom Cruise) mission against the rogue AI called The Entity.
With just over a month remaining until its release, the firstMission: Impossible — The Final Reckoningbox office projections have arrived. As reported byDeadline,Quoromhas the upcoming sequelbringing in at least $100 million in its Memorial Day release weekend, as is its competition, the live-actionLilo & Stitchremake. This would put it as the highest-grossing opening in the franchise thus far, surpassingMission: Impossible — Fallout’s $61 million opening. The opening projection forFinal Reckoningalone should nearly compensate for last year’s Memorial Day weekend draw of $132.2 million.

What This Means For Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
This Projection Points The Film Being More Commercially Successful Than The Last
Thelast movie in theMission: Impossiblefranchise,Dead Reckoning, made $571 million at the global box office with a reported production budget of around $300 million,leading some to consider that the installment was a box office underperformer. There are several factors to include, likeBarbieandOppenheimermaking high numbers during the same period and franchise fatigue, asDead Reckoningwas the seventh entry ofMission: Impossible.
Mission: Impossible Movies Ranked - From The 1996 Original to The Final Reckoning
Mission: Impossible is one of the most consistent movie franchises out there, but we’ve accepted the nearly-impossible task of ranking them.
WhileFinal Reckoningisn’t facing a pair of films expected to be such heavy hitters that they have a nickname for their simultaneous release, like Barbenheimer, the sequel is facing competition during its release.The most potent competitor could arguably bethe live-action remake ofLilo & Stitch, a long-awaited live-action version for Disney fans, which is also expected to open to high numbers. Other competitors includeKarate Kid: Legends,Thunderbolts*, andFinal Destination: Bloodlines, which are all part of well-known franchises, so the verdict will be left in the hands of star power and each franchise’s respective fanbase resilience.

Our Take On Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning’s Projections
It Being Considered An Underperformer Isn’t Likely
I don’t seeFinal Reckoningbeing considered a box office underperformerlikeDead Reckoning. It being marketed as the franchise’s finale, even while not confirmed to be such, could be a big draw for fans of theMission: Impossiblefranchise, along with the star power of Cruise. Aside fromLilo & StitchandThunderbolts*, it could beat out its competition, given the franchise’s history of commercial and critical success. All of that being said,Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoningshould at least break even, despite its gargantuan budget of $400 million.
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
Cast
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning follows Ethan Hunt and his team as they pursue a formidable AI called the Entity that has compromised global intelligence networks. With new allies and a haunting figure from Hunt’s past in pursuit, they must act quickly to avert a global catastrophe.