Moana 2is sailing into theaters this week, so of course the Disney animated sequel is top of mind when it comes to the 2025 Academy Awards. The first film was well-received by critics and went on to be nominated in theBest Animated Feature category. It ultimately lost to another Disney film,Zootopia, at the 2017 Oscars. Naturally, one might expect its splashy sequel to prove how far it can go this year — if only to prove that it can still win big despite the first film’s previous loss. But hasMoana 2proved itself a strong Oscars contender?

I’m not entirely convinced the sequel — which sees Moana reteaming with beloved demigod Maui on a new adventure — will be able to stand apart from its animated competition. Disney has a long history of winning the Best Animated Feature category;Pixar alone has won more than 10 Oscarsover the years, while Disney Animated Studios has received four gold statuettes. But DreamWorks and Studio Ghibli have long been contenders with their respective animated output, and this year’sThe Wild Robot, among others, might nipMoana 2’s Oscar chances in the bud before it has a chance to soar.

Moana 2 Faces Fierce Oscars Competition From Other 2024 Animations

The Wild Robot & Inside Out 2 Are Among Them

I do not doubt that Disney will launch a good Oscars campaign forMoana 2, but the truth is thatthe animation wasn’t even in the top 5 when the first wave of Oscar predictions began rolling out over a month ago. To be sure, Disney still has a strong foothold in the Animated Feature category, but if we’re comparing the two films they have out this year, thenInside Out 2is a much stronger contender against Universal’sThe Wild Robot, IFC’sMemoir of a Snail, and Netflix’sWallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl.

Moana 2will surely be a crowd-pleaser (regardless of its villain issues), but it falls behind its animated counterparts in terms of story and animation style. There’s an opportunity forMoana 2to be nominated, butconsideringMoanafailed to secure a win lowers the sequel’s chances. I thinkInside Out 2has a higher chance of winning the category because the first film actually won at the 2016 Oscars.Inside Out 2has precedence thatMoana 2simply doesn’t have, as it seems unlikely a sequel film will be able to best its predecessor in the same category.

Aulil Cravalho smiling in Moana 2 interview

Compared to the more original stories ofThe Wild Robot,Memoir of a SnailandFlow, Latvia’s official Oscars entry,Moana 2’s shot at winning is further diminished.

There’s also the fact that Pixar has won the Best Animated Feature category more often. Such factors play a big role inMoana 2’s Oscar chances. What’s more, movies likeThe Wild Robothave been universally beloved by both critics and audiences, which could edge out bothMoana 2andInside Out 2, both of which are sequels that may have Academy voters feeling like they’ve been there, done that. Compared to the more original stories ofThe Wild Robot,Memoir of a SnailandFlow, Latvia’s official Oscars entry,Moana 2’s shot at winning is further diminished.

Moana 2 (2024) official poster

Moana 2 Has A Better Shot In The Best Original Song Category

“Beyond” Is The Standout From The Film

Moana 2has a couple of good, catchy songs at least, and I gather it’ll have a much better chance at winning in the Best Original Song race than it does in the Best Animated Feature category. It’s a bit less of a competitive category than Animated Feature and its shot is even higher sinceDisney is submitting two of its songs— “Beyond” and “Can I Get a Chee Hoo?”, which is sung by Dwayne Johnson’s Maui.

“Beyond” shows off Moana’s character growth and the stakes of her journey, as well as the beauty of Auli’i Cravalho’s voice. It’s a nice follow-up to “How Far I’ll Go,” but hits deeper than the 2016 song. It’s a personal song that fits well with the maturity of the sequel. Of the two songs, “Beyond” has a much better chance in the song category. “Can I Get a Chee Hoo?” is fun but it’s also no “You’re Welcome.” “How Far I’ll Go” didn’t win in this category, but “Beyond” might proveMoanadoesn’t need Lin-Manuel Miranda on board to win.

Lin-Manuel Miranda didn’t write any of the new songs forMoana 2, which is a big change from the first film, in which he co-wrote the majority.

“Beyond” is also more accessible than some of the other songsthat are in contention, such as “El Mal” from Netflix’sEmilia Pérez, while it’s on par with “Kiss the Sky” fromThe Wild Robot. It’s also up against a potential Diane Warren nomination, “The Journey” by H.E.R. fromThe Six Triple Eight, but for all the times the songwriter has been nominated she has yet to win an Oscar (only an honorary one).

Moana 2 Star Auli’i Cravalho Praises Character Growth & Musical Evolution In The Disney Sequel

Moana 2 star Auli’i Cravalho explains how Moana evolves through her duty to community in the sequel, and how that growth is expressed through song.

“Beyond”’s biggest competition is probably Lainey Wilson’s “Out of Oklahoma,” fromTwisters. One of the song’s writers, Shane McAnally, is a two-time Grammy winner. That said,Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, who composed “Beyond”, have also won a Grammy, so their chances for winning the Best Original Song category atthe 2025 Oscarsare even higher with that in mind. TheMoana 2song has a depth that some of the other potential nominees don’t have, and it could go so far as to inspire Academy voters.

Moana 2

Cast

Moana 2 is the sequel to the 2016 animated film Moana. Directed by David G. Derrick Jr., Jason Hand, and Dana Ledoux Miller, the film continues the journey of Moana as she embarks on new adventures, exploring the vast Pacific Ocean while encountering new characters and challenges along the way.