UPDATE: 2025-06-09 08:01 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Red One’s Debut Prospects Rise By $4 Million, Which Is Still Not Enough

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Red One’s opening weekend projections have continued to shrink. The movie, which was directed byJumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’s Jake Kasdan, stars Chris Evans and Dwayne Johnson as hacker Jack O’Malley and North Pole security commander Callum Drift respectively, a naughty and nice duo who must work together to rescue the kidnapped Santa Claus (J. K. Simmons) and save Christmas. TheRed Onereleaseis positioned as the first major big-budget tentpole of the 2024 holiday season, coming to screens a week before the simultaneous debuts of the major blockbustersWickedandGladiator II.

PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,Red Oneis projected to earn a 3-day opening weekend total of$34.1 millionat the domestic box office. This ishitting the higher end of the movie’s projections as of Fridayand is more than enough for the movie to claim the No. 1 slot on the domestic box office chart for the weekend. It has shuntedVenom: The Last Dancedown to No. 2, ending the superhero sequel’s three-week reign at the top of the chart.

However, this debut stillpales in comparison to the movie’s massive reported production budget of $250 million. Despite being the best opening weekend for an Amazon MGM Studios release sinceCreed IIIhit theaters in March 2023,Red Onecontinues a run of disappointing theatrical releases for Johnson, whose recent work includes 2023’sBlack Adam(which failed to break even despite earning $393.5 million), 2022’sDC League of Super-Pets(which likely only just barely broke even with $207.6 million), and 2021’sJungle Cruise(which only earned $220.9 million against a $200 million budget, probably due debuting on Disney+ simultaneously).

The upcomingMoana 2seems set to break this unfortunate streakfor the star, considering it broke the record for the most first-day ticket pre-sales for a 2024 animated movie, even beatingInside Out 2, which has become the highest-grossing animated movie of all time. However, for the time being,Red One’s No. 1 debut still is far from a win. See the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend below:

1

$34.1 million

$34.1 million (weekend 1)

2

$7.3 million

$127.6 million (weekend 4)

3

$5.4 million

$19.9 million (weekend 2)

4

$5.16 million

$20.4 million (weekend 2)

5

$4.3 million

$137.7 million (weekend 8)

There has been no major movement on the chart, as the arrival ofRed Onehas simplypushed the entire Top 4 from the previous weekend down one spot apiece. TheBest Christmas Pageant Everrelease has continued to maintain its slim lead over theA24 horror movieHeretic, as both remain neck and neck with matching 50% drops. This is a much more impressive result for the latter title, as horror movies have a habit of dropping much more than 50% in their second weekends.

Meanwhile,The Wild Robothas managed an impressively slim 35% dropin its eighth weekend, even though it is already available at home on PVOD.

What This Box Office Debut Means For Red One

The Movie’s Finances Are Complicated

The massiveRed Onebudgetpresents the movie with a problem. Because theaters keep half of ticket sales and production budgets do not include publicity costs (which were especially high for this title), movies typically need to earn back at least two-and-a-half times their budgets in theaters in order to end up in the black. This likelyplaces the Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans movie’s break-even point somewhere around $625 million or more. Even with the $28 million it earned in an early international release, the movie’s grosses so far indicate it will likely never reach that point in theaters.

In addition to advance screenings beginning on October 31,Red Onedebuted in the UK and Ireland on November 6 and in Latin America on November 7.

However, the movie is an Amazon MGM Studios production that was originally designed as a Prime Video exclusive, sotheatrical grosses may only be a cherry on top if it has a successful streaming debutand continues to be a perennial holiday viewing title, returning to the Prime charts every December. However, it remains to be seen how it performs once it hits the streaming platform, as dismalRed Onereviewshave earned it a 32% score on Rotten Tomatoes, an early sign that it may not become a word-of-mouth success, even though early user reviews have been more positive.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Red One Has A Lot Of Competition Going Forward

Ultimately, it remains to be seen ifRed Onebecomes something of a sleeper hit. There are still five more weekends before Christmas, sothe movie could capitalize on the remaining holiday season windowto accrue more and more viewership in theaters. However, the impending late-November releases ofWicked,Gladiator II, andMoana 2, followed in mid-to-late December byKraven The Hunter,The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,Mufasa: The Lion King,Sonic the Hedgehog 3, andRobert Eggers’Nosferatucould potentially provide it with far too much competition for it to stand out.

Red One

Cast

After Santa Claus is kidnapped, the North Pole’s Head of Security (Dwayne Johnson) must team up with a notorious bounty hunter (Chris Evans) in a thrilling, globe-spanning mission to save Christmas. This action-packed holiday adventure mixes comedy and festive magic, with an ensemble cast that includes Lucy Liu and J.K. Simmons.