The early data for the 2024 box office battle betweenWickedandGladiator IIhas been revealed.Wickedis an adaptation of the popular Broadway musicalof the same name, which will tell half of the story of the musical, with part 2 coming at a later date.Wickedfeatures a leading cast including Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.Gladiator IIis the follow-up to Ridley Scott’s 2000 historical epicGladiator. Its leading cast includes Pedro Pascal, Paul Mescal, Denzel Washington, and Joseph Quinn.
Data fromPucknow reveals whereWickedandGladiator IIstand for the 2024 box office race. The data gauged both audience interest and awareness of some of the remaining releases in 2024, providing these scores as a percentage of respondents who are interested or aware of these movies. According to this survey,Gladiator IIandWickedhave nearly identical interest scores, with the former holding a 49% and latter with 50%.Wickedplaces higher thanGladiator II, however, in terms of awareness. 50% of people responded that they were aware ofWickedwhereas only 43% were aware ofGladiator II.
What This Data Means For The Wicked & Gladiator II Box Office Battles
Wicked Has A Better Success Chance
Gladiator IIandWickedhave the same release date, November 22, making this date theBarbenheimer event of 2024. Poising two highly different films against each other, theWickedandGladiator IIbattle bears numerous similarities to that of Barbenheimer.Gladiator IIandOppenheimerare both historically set dramas by auteur directors, whereasWickedandBarbieare both IP-based films with a female-dominated target audience. This likensWickedvs.Gladiator IIto Barbenheimer, creating another fascinating box office showdown.
Gladiator 2: Everything You Need To Know
More than 20 years after the original Gladiator, the sequel arrived in 2024. Here is everything you need to know about Gladiator 2.
At this point,Wickedhas scored higher thanGladiator IIin both success metrics. Now, its one percentage point win over the Scott film does not indicate that it will win at the box office. These survey metrics are just one way to predict the box office and are not an absolute measurement of which will win.Wickeddoes have significantly more awareness thanGladiator II, however. This could change with an advertising push over the next couple of weeks, but if more people know aboutWicked, the film has a bigger potential audience.
What We Think Will Win In Gladiator II vs. Wicked
The Wicked Musical Released More Recently Than The Original Gladiator
What fascinates me most about the data onWickedandGladiator IIis the fact thatWickedhas managed to amass more awareness even thoughGladiator IIis a sequel film. Part of this might be recency, because the musical debuted more recently thanGladiator, and the rise in awareness created byWicked’s connection toThe Wizard of Oz. Either way, I think that the popularity of the stage musical, the family-friendly nature ofWicked, and early prediction data putWickedpretty well ahead in this box office race.
Wicked
Cast
Wicked adapts the Broadway musical into a two-part film, following the unlikely friendship between Elphaba, born with green skin, and Glinda, a popular aristocrat, in the Land of Oz. As they navigate their contrasting paths, they evolve into Glinda the Good and the Wicked Witch of the West.
Gladiator II
Gladiator 2 is the follow-up to Ridley Scott’s award-winning film Gladiator from 2000. Scott returns to direct the sequel, with Paul Mescal staring as Lucius, alongside Denzel Washington and Joseph Quinn as the villain Emperor Geta. Gladiator 2 had been stuck in development hell for years before a script written by David Scarpa finally moved forward.
